Something Big Is Happening

Summary

Matt Shumer argues we’re in the early, underappreciated phase of an AI transformation already reshaping knowledge work. AI now completes complex multi-day software projects autonomously, and METR data shows AI autonomy doubling roughly every 4-7 months. He warns the window for early-mover advantage is brief and narrowing.

Key Points

• AI capability progression: failed basic arithmetic in 2022, passed the bar in 2023, wrote working software in 2024, top engineers delegated most coding by late 2025
• METR data shows AI autonomy doubling every 4-7 months, with AI completing tasks requiring ~5 hours of expert human work
• OpenAI stated GPT-5.3 Codex was “instrumental in creating itself”; Amodei says AI may autonomously build the next generation within 1-2 years
• Amodei predicts 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs eliminated within 1-5 years
• Unlike prior automation waves, AI attacks all cognitive work simultaneously, leaving no obvious retraining refuge
• Free AI tiers are 12+ months behind paid versions — casual users dramatically underestimate current capability